Strive Notes

I was moving stuff around the office and came across my copy of John Naisbitt’s Megatrends, published in 1982.  His predictions, seen with hindsight, make pretty interesting reading. Here’s a summary of some of his predictions, (and my feedback):

• The shift from a post-industrial to an information society in which information becomes a major resource and a major industry. (This one was right on the money.)
• The move away from national economies towards a global one forcing the adjustment to a world of interdependent communities. (Corporate globalisation is well underway, many large free trade zones have been established. But, the north/south divide hasn’t begun to be addressed not to mention the religious tensions that continue to cause major divisions.)
• Short-term profits become less important as companies adopt long-range planning to maintain steady growth. (This will require a fundamental change in human nature; greed is a human condition.)
• Centralized hierarchical structures become a thing of the past as flatter decentralised corporations become more nimble to cope with the accelerating pace of change. (He got this one right.)
• Dependence on institutional help declines as people become more self-reliant. (This moves back and forth depending on left/right swinging governments. The Boomers thought,”all you need is love”.  It hasn’t quite turned out that way.)
• A gradual shift from representative to participatory democracy including consensual management. (People spurn the polling stations. But social media is definitely opening up new avenues for participation.)
• Eroding hierachies give way to social networks as a way of solving community problems. (Care in the community, but does it work?)
• The break up of a unified society into diverse groups of people with different tastes and values.  (Psychographics and narrow casting!)

Naisbitt’s got a new book out: Mind Set: Reset your thinking and see the future.  I might pick it up.

Filed under: public relations